An Uncomfortable Win

 

Fox: About a quarter of Republicans are saying they will never vote for Donald Trump pic.twitter.com/ssxqi3Lsov

— Biden-Harris HQ (@BidenHQ) February 25, 2024

I said a few weeks ago that what would be more interesting to me than the Democratic SC results would be how the GOP open primary turned out. South Carolina is pretty Trumpy, but a 40% showing for his opponent says something--and not because it's her home state.  She was always going to lose this primary, the question was:

By how much and what does it say about the electorate? 

Trump should have romped if we were just going by high-school educated, evangelical white voters. Women voters didn't elevate Haley. She's at 40%, not like, 15%, because of Independent voters (not really, appreciably, crossover-voting Democrats). 

And then--how likely are Haley voters to back Trump:

CNN exit polls in SC

QUESTION: AMONG HALEY VOTERS: Feelings if Trump wins nomination?
•Satisfied: 21%⁰Dissatisfied: 78%

QUESTION: AMONG HALEY VOTERS: Trump fit for presidency if convicted of a crime?
•Yes: 15%
•No:…

— Manu Raju (@mkraju) February 25, 2024

I don't know that this is something the Trump campaign (the poor, underfunded, legally-challenged Trump campaign) should feel comfortable with. Oh yeah, they would still take SC in the general election: but they aren't looking at states this red across the board. And Haley's staying in to keep the argument that Trump has some real deficiencies alive.  

And he does turn people off. Take a look at his recent performance at the Black Conservative Federation Gala, or how his backhand introduction of loyal Renfield, Lindsay Graham, resulted in a chorus of boos in the man's own state. Or his alpha-display humiliations of Tim Scott. Maybe people feel obligated to kiss up to Trump, but how are they enjoying the flavor?

Also, I think we can expect to see Trump's personality quirks (shameful lying and alternating self-aggrandizement/self-pitying) in sharper relief as the mounting legal issues and the rigors of the campaign wear on. Not to mention his obvious mental failings. 

Sure--a win is a win. I just think this the big picture isn't one Trump or his team should be comfortable with.