Wednesday, May 4, 2016

Six Delegates of Separation

In other primary news, Senator Bernie Sanders won the Indiana primary, which, in the apportioned delegate selection, means he got 43 delegates to her 37. This is significant, because I feel like people aren't paying attention to the delegate math. This was an open primary, so Sanders doing just a bit better was not too surprising.

Hillary Clinton needs 2,383 altogether to secure the nomination. She is still closer to securing the nomination altogether.

Donald Trump has basically secured the nomination of his party already and his candidacy is a dumpster fire.

I know there are people who feel like they should flush a vote for "Unicorn" down the old porcelain ballot box in the hopes that it will telegraph to the democracy gods that they have once again fucked up. But I believe that the old gods are dead and there is only math. I like math. I don't like Donald Trump.

Hillary Clinton believes in climate change, equal rights for women, equal rights for LGBT people, and not pillaging the daylights out of the working class to feed Mammon. I think interventionism deserves all the second thoughts in the world and that the 1% probably deserves a trip to the woodshed. But I will believe that Hillary Clinton turns the world on with a smile if it means we don't get Donald Trump, because in the universe where he wins I see more war and more party favors for the 1%ers on the USS Fuckthepoors. I see a future where racial inequality is preserved or widened, and a sensible path regarding immigration is demogogued away.

In the Clinton universe, her coattails for Congress and her SCOTUS choices minimize the hell out of the damage.

You all do you, of course. I'm just making a vague point about math.

Tuesday, May 3, 2016

Ted Cruz and the 2020 Vision?

It is sort of fitting that a candidate who seemed a little less than adept at being perfectly home in a human skin (c'mon, Ted, even a dog can shake hands, as the man said!), who disturbed small children (even his own!)and seemed a little more like an alien who lived on human misery and tinned soup, clocks his wife in the jibs as he ended his awkward campaign on an awkward note. It seems to be who he is--just an awkward, awkward guy who misnames sportsball equipment and strings movie quotes together when he can't make regular talk happen.

There's probably a way to sell this as being humanizing, if Cruz starts now. And I think he did, just a little, when he finally responded to the damn silliness of Cruz, Sr. being a part of the JFK assassination conspiracy by blasting Trump for his unserious repetition of crazy tabloid bullshit. I'm not saying I'd buy Cruz becoming likable--but what the hell--he's probably already had his eye on whether his chances are better in 2020. After all, I've already figured that Cruz is thinking long-range. Why wouldn't he--being I should certainly hope more wrapped up in his political future than your humble blogger is?

After all, although Cruz has bowed out, there's something about having been a figure for #NeverTrump people that I think should encourage him to refrain from coming around to endorsing Trump--after things Trump has said, I'd certainly respect him less if he did. I don't think there's any reason Cruz should a) expect a place for himself in a possible Trump cabinet or even b) put any eggs in the "Trump wins the 2016 race" basket at all.

Frankly, a 2016 win for Hillary Clinton becomes Cruz's best shot--having already proven a capable bomb-thrower with his previous government shutdown hijinks, it's clear that he can sustain a high profile as the face of opposition to Hillary Clinton's velvet-gloved tyranny from his position in the Senate. That, plus a softening of Clinton's image after a regular four-year RW media bombardment gives him a lot to work with. And with Trump having lost to Clinton in 2016 (because this is likely, unless you believe Rasmussen math, and I think they must have hired that Dean Chambers cat...)any hard feelings over his failure to give in for the sake of party unity to Team "Never Say Never" will be forgiven because, as you know, Trump was a loser.

And he never was a real conservative, anyway.

Now, part of me wants to think that calculation will be cancelled out by demographics, and that Cruz might not even win re-election for the Senate. It would count on a really rugged time for a potential President Clinton and a gathering social conservative backlash that is partially presaged by the "religious freedom" and trans bathroom discrimination bills we've been seeing in this cycle. But I can't say it doesn't make a weird kind of sense.

This is not the last we see of Ted Cruz's presidential hopes, folks.

Donald Trump Has a Funny Idea

You know, there are a lot of things you can say about Ted Cruz--after all, when your wife has to explain you are not the Zodiac Killer and the former Speaker of the House calls you "Lucifer" , it's a sign your reputation is in trouble. But saying that someone's dad helped assassinate JFK is kinda cuckoo bananas.

But this is Trump. He mainstreams tabloid conspiracy theory all the time. Anyone else, we would wonder whether the person throwing this out there was in his right mind, or maybe was actually too gullible or deranged to be presidential. With Trump? Normal! What an election year!

Friday, April 29, 2016

Now that's an Endorsement, I Guess

Shorter Mike Pence: "There's a lot to be said for Team Bully, but you know me, I'm Team Bigot all the way. But you do you."

Also, Ted Cruz probably can't win the nomination.

Thursday, April 28, 2016

Unprepared Man Makes a Prepared Speech

I would like to take a moment to notice that our current president, Barack Obama, has been castigated for using Teleprompters, even though every political figure for a forever ago has been using them. Although, suddenly, Donald Trump uses Teleprompters and he is commended for getting better at using them.

This is pathetic but actually the most substantive thing you could draw out of his foreign policy speech, because the damnable thing of it is--he's a lightweight and Secretary of State Clinton is liable to kick his entire privileged ass in.

I do not believe that getting better at reading from Teleprompters should count in Donald Trump's favor. It is revealing of his faults.

Wednesday, April 27, 2016

Hoping to Catch a Draft from an Upward-Failer?

I think the leak that Carly Fiorina was going to be Ted Cruz's Very Big Serious Announcement was not all that surprising--merely kind of weird. After all, Fiorina's endorsement of Cruz was treated as a pretty big "get" and they seemed pretty tight since, even though at one time, Fiorina basically admitted that Ted Cruz would say anything to win. Our mistake was in thinking she meant that as a criticism.

What can one say? Ted Cruz is not likely to be the GOP nominee, which makes this pretense something along the lines of staging a children's tea party with empty cups and teddy bears in some of the seats. (Unless of course, the Trump University trial sinks Donald Trump's candidacy, although this is not Donald Trump's first rodeo, and what the fuck am I talking about--I sort of think his gobs of hubris are preventing him from realizing what his general business shenanigans translate to in terms of how political personae are construed--Caesar's wife, or even Big Dog Bill's, he ain't. Remotely.)

Is it possible that Cruz is allying himself to Fiorina in the hopes of presenting himself as a more woman-friendly candidate than Trump? Is he just pandering to the many California voters in hopes of receiving many California delegates in the last place he can hope to pick up anything like a "many"? Has he lost his shpadoinkle?

I'd Say It's all Over But the Being Over

It's at the point where I can't pretend that my job's busy season is really keeping me from blogging anymore and get down to admitting that these Democratic presidential primaries seem to give me roughly the same sense of intense lassitude that debt ceiling arguments do. So I'm going to take the results of last night's primaries (including the one in my home state)--a sweep by Donald Trump and a 4 out of 5 win by Hillary Clinton, as a hopeful sign of the Beginning of the End. At least, I think Trump and Clinton seem in agreement that this is the beginning of the end, even if their intraparty opponents don't!

Senator Sanders still maintains that there is a path to the nomination (and some of his principal advisers seem eager to keep things going until the convention, regardless) even though the chances of a contested convention are pretty darn remote. (I am going to discount the probability suggested at Salon that an FBI investigation is going to sink her campaign on the grounds of this ain't her first rodeo, and I'm sure her legal self-vetting regarding her conduct as Secretary of State was exceptionally thorough--all political candidates seem to have gobs of hubris, but she has experience of how people get burned.) This is despite signs that his campaign is beginning to cut back.

I really do want Sanders and his supporters to have a voice regarding party platform at the convention, because I've been a fan of much of what he has been talking about, but my issue has mainly always been procedural--how do progressives get things done? And as a watcher of how campaigns fund and spend, it's only my dearth of blogging in general that has kept me from writing a "Bern rate" post--big rallies generate their own advertising, but their cost hasn't necessarily been balanced out by returns at the ballot box.

As for Donald Trump, he has two challengers who are bolstered by the #Nevertrump notion into hanging on, that are almost shamefully inept. Senator Ted Cruz, in a Bizarro World Hail Mary move (about which more in a later post), has announced a running mate a day after being basically mathematically eliminated from serious contention. Ohio Governor John Kasich still has less delegates than Senator Marco Rubio, who dropped out in early March.

Although I will write about future primaries--my heart isn't in it anymore. I want to write about Trump's obnoxious style versus Clinton's substance. I want to write about the bullshit misogyny of deriding "the woman card" versus the real need for leaders who do understand and represent the concerns of, it turns out, the slight majority of US voters by gender.

So despite some of the enervating aspects of the 2016 election year to date, bring on Trump vs. Clinton! If I had any questions about how strongly I supported Hillary Clinton before Trump decided to adopt the "unqualified except for being a woman" meme--well now it's entirely on.