TWGB: Chaff and Ammunition

One of the things to keep in mind about Ukraine, which is featuring prominently in the TrumpWorld storyline now, is that it isn't just a part of the story: this is a country that had a very corrupt government that was pro-Russia, and the pro-Russian government was being advised by Paul Manafort, who went on to become Donald Trump's campaign manager for a spell. Trump's phone call with President Zelenskyy  and the uncertainty of receiving military aid because of the difficulties posed by doing Trump a favor, not alienating European backers, etc., led to a decision that might please Russia, but does not please all Ukrainians:

During their presser last week Trump said he hoped Zelensky could work things out with Putin.

Tonight, protests erupted on Maidan in central Kyiv over Zelensky's backing of the Steinmeier Formula [capitulation to Russia re Donbass] with protestors chanting: “Zelensky out!” https://t.co/AJlfwk1Xyb

— Polly Sigh (@dcpoll) October 2, 2019

To people in the US, Trump's apparent extortion of another world leader for his own electoral benefit is an exercise in whether our institutions can deal with a president's abuse of power, but for Ukraine, this is a more existential matter (or, arguably, both situations are existential, but differ in the degree). Zelenskyy yielded geographic control because he doubted he had strong enough global support.

The United States, supposed leader of the free world, exporter of democratic values....

Hold up. I'm telling it wrong. Self-determined cop of the world, the United States, got caught sleeping. We never were good at law and global order, and now are a disgrace. Because our current president has no more idea regarding alliances than sheer transactionalism.  He owes Russia plenty (allegedly--let's say) and owes Ukraine nothing. You couldn't sell him on Ukrainian sovereignty for freedom's sake because that would involve explaining too much, and for all his "America First" blather, I don't know that he values what US sovereignty is worth.



But Trump does know he needs to be reelected because one term good, two terms better. The original sin of his campaign was getting labeled "Putin's Puppet". He blames the Steele Dossier, even if it was irrelevant to some of the more concerning connections against him. And this is why I think Giuliani and friends (Toensing and diGenova and Paul Manafort, would you believe!?) cooked up a weird bit of chaff.

I don't know what's in there. I know Giuliani sounds happy to have produced some of it, and maybe a forged a little? It looks like some jerk's draft of a good intelligence product.  They probably should have hired some bastards like Fusion GPS if they wanted this shit done right--but I digress. We've got a sloppy bit of tinfoil (chaff) being thrown out to distract from the actual signal problem of the White House.

Which is folks being loyal to a fault--Trump's fault(s). Instead of being left the clean man to remain in the case of Trump impeachment to wipe his ass with a pardon, Pence looks to be all implicated and impeachable himself. Why? Because Pence needed to be self-incriminating, at least a little, to prove his loyalty to the lunatic capo.



The Ukraine thing was intended to be ammunition against people who wanted to bring up the Mueller investigation, by what-iffing it. What if there was a counter-story. What if Democrats were really the bad guys here. What if lil' Ukraine was the bad guy. What if Trump was really being world peace Jesus here and everyone was just flaying his hide because they are haters and losers?

That isn't even in character. Trump has been screaming out loud since always that he would collude with any foreign power that gave him dirt. It didn't even have to be good--he will work with conspiracy theories! And since it's true that he's digging for fake oppo in an opportunity mine, he fires ammunition at anyone who calls him on it--like somehow bringing George Soros into this, because some folks (actualized or latent anti-Semites) will apparently believe anything if Soros is involved.

Also Trump fans hate Democrats, so any smallest hint that Biden is problematic is a total win. Real or not. It won't matter in the long run, because in the long run, bad memes are forever.

But? Eh. It would be dead awkward if Trump tried to ruin Biden, and Biden wasn't even the 2020 Democratic candidate, or if Trump was impeached, but so buggered things up that Pence wasn't even around to pardon him. It would be awkward--but if this is the darkest timeline, I might as well have fun imagining what could be.

But in the immediate now? We don't even have the whole phone call transcript that means to damn Trump to "not in office" hell. As many a Twitter wag has already noted, there's about 18.5 minutes missing. And the devil is sometimes in such details.