The Red Wave that Wasn't

 

I very carefully treated Tuesday's returns like they weren't even there until now. I wasn't posting last night. I didn't want to hear any news. I don't do prognostication on this blog for a very good, reason--there are ghosts in the machine. and I believe in them. We shouldn't listen to polls too much, because if polls were great, why would we ever have elections? And knowing very well that returns take time, and might be illusory early on, I wanted to say less and less even as some kind of picture shaped up.

But I'm now less reticent in saying--it was a good night. It was a good night especially in Pennsylvania, where Shapiro and Fetterman came through and the State House is blue. I am extremely pleased that Mastriano (1/6 attendee) lost despite the rainbow that his "prophets" thought might foretell his victory:

I mean:

During Mastriano’s speech on pronouns, he sees a rainbow and says God is sending a message pic.twitter.com/EOHc9aSuIX

— Acyn (@Acyn) November 5, 2022

No, hon, this is the sign Lesbian Jesus sends to you to tell you why you lost.  Keep up.

And everyone knows why Dr. Oz lost. Not because Oprah endorsed Fetterman--it's because Trump doesn't pick winners. And let's hear a very long and loud round of applause for Trump rubbing his lose-sauce so many people. Trump lost the House in 2018 (by more than expectations). He lost in 2020 and helped lose the Senate for Republicans. He was impeached twice and so many Republicans have donated so much money and stuck their whole necks out for him, and in the midterms, which is so usually a referendum on the popularity of the current president, amazingly, the shitheeledness of the former president still had currency to totally dead albatross the heck out of the "Let's Go Brandon" meme. 

Because "Brandon" has been going. He was going to support candidates that won. His supposed unpopularity didn't sink candidates he showed up for, but what was the benefit of a Trump endorsement?

Questionable. 

Our man is actually getting told to maybe postpone his Big Announcement until after the Warnock/Walker run-off in December because his miserable carcass might jinx it. That's where we're at. And a lot can happen on the DOJ front in a month, if you know what I mean. And a lot will assuredly happen in NY, since Tish James got overwhelmingly returned, and since Hochul handily won. 

I anticipated in my guts the likelihood that the House would be lost, despite my insane wishcasting it might be otherwise--but it is close. I don't think we can escape the weird vagaries of the GOP witch hunt version of a House Oversight committee, but maybe? The margin of control being so thin? 

I might have my digs to get in over Sean Maloney, over why Democratic fundraising emails suck, over how we could have even more over-performed expectations with more positivity, and how to slice and dice weak-ass imbecile GOP talking point drones instead of staying on policy, which hardly anyone understands, when they might prefer a bit of theater. 

But for now I have things not being as fully awful as they could have been. And I can accept that. 

UPDATE:  I didn't expect better from Florida, but Texas--this is about turn out, and I don't know what the Texas Democratic party is doing, but I don't think they quite know either. O'Rourke is just that much better than Abbot ever, but he's just not ever going to get there? A great, dedicated public servant like Beto, who is giving his all, just isn't going to win against a conspiracy-theorist stunt queen? Infuriating.

It's not my state, but I guess I'm pissed for the benefit of the Texans who didn't vote or wouldn't vote for the right guy even if the wrong guy in office was likely to kill them.