Trump World Grab-Bag--A Collection

Tuesday, July 14, 2015

The Iran Deal: A New Beginning

The announcement of a deal to curb Iran's nuclear program should be viewed as a pretty epic diplomatic achievement. They're giving up an awful lot, and what the West is doing is not punishing them economically so much. When you look at the details, it probably helps to consider that if there were no deal--we would actually not get any of this. They'd still have the same amount of uranium, keep all their centrifuges, and enrich it to whatever the hell degree they like. The alternatives to negotiation that some people seem to favor, which is war, is conceding billions of dollars and lives, compared to which, giving up some sanctions that can always get slapped back on with a resolution pretty much sounds asinine.

What I'm saying is: I genuinely think most of the critics haven't looked over the details, and are making no sense. Their complaints are a little like a dog barking at a vacuum cleaner. Something's going on, they don't approve, woof! Dumb, kneejerk "appeasement" rhetoric just doesn't line up what has actually taken place. (It's especially rich when Jeb Bush tries to use it, but frankly, he doesn't seem to understand foreign policy--period. Too many big-syllable words, I guess.)

This achieves what 30 years of hostility hasn't done. It's a big freaking deal. If we had an informed, sane national dialogue, the reaction would not be so partisan.


mikey said...

The whole thing has been embarassingly dishonest. If Iran wanted a nuclear weapon, they would have one - it's seventy year old well-understood technology that doesn't present a real challenge. Every intelligence agency in the world agrees they don't have an active nuclear weapons program. They are the ONLY NPT signatory in good standing that ever was sanctioned for a (completely permitted) civilian nuclear power program. The additional irony of the foaming at the mouth from Israel, a nation that never signed the NPT and illegally developed nuclear weapons, just makes the whole thing that much more surreal.

So Iran agreed to what was necessary to have the unecessary and illegal sanctions lifted, even as they exposed the US as an ungovernable nation. The agreement will collapse, because the 9 to 12 months before they get any sanctions relief will provide far too much opportunity for their hardliners to blow it up.

Pretty much everybody involved has been stupid and dishonest, and they took a simple negotiation and turned it into a bizarre ritual...

Vixen Strangely said...

Depressingly apt--Iran got their tech originally from us under happier relations (atoms for peace). This is what makes the idea of denying them the ability to do research stupid--are they supposed to forget the tech they already learned--quite lawfully? Their side negotiated in good faith--the ill-advised letter of the 47-dumbass ronin essentially does prove that we have a dilettante amateur-hour political class that will demogogue over things that even the most superficial scan of publically-known literature will disprove. Our US hardliners should look to the displeasure of the Iranian hardliners to see the relative merit of the plan, but are far too short-sighted to do any such thing. I am disheartened that even Hillary Clinton felt the need to couch her support of the plan in basically anti-Iran rhetoric, as if to legitimize her position within an essentially anti-Iran frame (which--when lined up with her sort of suck-up position to Israel, bugs me. I don't like a lot of what they do, like bulldozing blocks and knocking over olive groves. Fangirling that stuff is nonsense--the IDF treats Bedouins and Palestinians no better than Saddam ever treated the marsh Arabs. And I see that kind of treatment as thisclose to genocidal.)

This is the best war-avoiding choice. If the US wants to take the high side--they should sign on in a hurry and give the Iranians the bad face to screw it up if that's what has to happen. But right now, our inability to get on the same page looks irregular, and disrespects Obama--this is the kind of thing that also chaps my ass--the same people who want to talk shit about American Exceptionalism, don't mind at all if they trash our legitimately-elected president. And mostly not for the apparently right reasons.

This was way dumber than it needed to be. And it still a necessary diplomatic achievement.