Trump World Grab-Bag--A Collection

Thursday, June 12, 2014

Revisiting Cantor's Defeat

I have a tendency to turn things over in my head for awhile, and the loss of the VA-7 GOP primary for Eric Cantor is the kind of thing I do puzzle over. I write about politics. This completely fascinates me because it is anomalous, which means information, which means there is something to be learned.

So, let's just agree, it's a thing that blind-sided some pundit-folks. Hell, it blind-sided the bejesus out of Cantor's pollster. And I just want to say--the poll numbers are what seem weird to me. A deviation of four or five percent I could roll with. A 40 point differential isn't an error--it's like a crime-scene. And I really don't think in Cantor's district that there would be enough Democrats "in on" a secret whisper campaign to fiddle with Cantor's seat to make that huge a dent.

This was an in-house drive-by. The home folks were genuinely upset by Cantor's inattention. And he paid. Despite his campaign having out-raised Brat's by something like 26-1, he couldn't pull this one out because he was blissfully unaware he had to. No small amount of the cash Cantor brought in was from corporate sources, and Brat hit him on cronyism. But let's be real. You don't knock off a macher like Cantor without klout, and well, maybe Brat got a little.

I don't know how any pollster would be unaware of a challenger like Brat getting good name recognition via right-wing media, though. I don't know how hard it is to identify "likely voters" when the actual district is pretty much conservative. I do know, though, that political polling for a campaign is a tool to see what potential problems need addressing within a potential voter pool, and should not be about stroking a candidate's ego. This trend of favorable polling seems pretty useless. Maybe if I were running a campaign, I'd like someone brutally honest or even weighting stuff against me so my crew would try harder to look for votes. It's too late for Cantor (anyone thinking he has a lobbying position just a little time and money away lined up for him, though?) but I don't know. It just seems like a good idea. For the people who like getting elected to office.

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

Hi Vixen,
I heard a woman call in on a radio show the other day from Cantor's district. She said that she had always voted for Cantor, but went to an affair that featured Brat.

She said that she was so struck by Brat's integrity, decency, and honesty that Cantor came up as a short second in comparison.

She explained that she called a dozen or so of her friends and told them that she and her husband were switching their allegiance and maybe they would like to as well.

She went on say the area that they live in is a highly educated community with a lot of well-kept houses and lawns, a lot of churches, and a lot of very responsible citizens.

What I took away from her explanation was that Cantor had seemed like a pretty good choice before they had someone to compare him with that apparently had very conspicuous virtues. And it may be that this is what turned the tide in addition to some of the things you have pointed out.

--Formerly Amherst