For personal reasons, I have a very simple, easy-to-follow rule about New Jersey politics: I don't touch them. So far, this has been pretty easy for me, because I usually don't blog about state politics unless something pretty egregious seems to be happening, or something just can't be ignored. New Jersey is a mostly blue state, and nothing pressing has really come up for me--but I do blog national politics and especially the presidential elections. For that reason, not blogging about Governor Christie is just not possible. So I have to modify--somewhat.
That being said, the buzz around the governor's possible candidacy for 2012 still strikes me as possibly overblown. Even though there is eagerness among some supporters for him to enter the race, I think there is an important factor to consider: even though Chris Christie might be the best chance the GOP has for 2012, 2012 might not be the best chance for Christie to run. I know, this could be wishful thinking on my part, so that I get another few years to avoid even mentioning New Jersey. But I also think it's a realistic consideration.
Even though Obama's support isn't as strong as it has been, he still has incumbency on his side. He can point to his achievements as president, and he's a very strong campaigner. An incumbent contestant won't be a factor for 2016. The other other concern is timing--were Christie to enter the race now, it would be on the late side after numerous emphatic protestations that he had no interest in running. Now, if he has sufficient support and with good fund-raising, I guess he can pull the presence across the country to make a good run possible, but there is something of a media pitfall. Having been built up as an eagerly-awaited candidate who might outperform the existing choices, expectations for how he performs as a candidate may be set unrealistically high, and any gaffes (and on a long, arduous campaign trail--everybody gaffes) or odd facts from his C.V. will get played up by the press and pounced on by the competition. Where expectations are high--disappointments can be, too. (That's rather the sort of thing that's swiftly knocking the luster off Perry.)
Preparing and entering the race in 2016, on the other hand, tones down the spotlight. Also, he hasn't been governor of New Jersey that long, so having more time to build up a record of executive experience would work in his favor. I would think he's given all this pretty serious consideration and definitely factors in to why he is unlikely to enter this time around.
One other note before I'm off the subject of Christie--I'm all for a vigorous partisan bashing of a candidate where it's merited, if a given position is ill-informed, cruel, reckless, wrong, or what have you. How someone carries themselves in a battle, the choices they make, whether they play fair or dirty--those things matter. But I do have to say that there's a line I don't think should be crossed on a personal matter--I don't care for the way his weight has occasionally been made an issue. Although fat jokes may feel like harmless fun to some, I disagree. Regardless of one's opinions about a given person, when fat jokes are made, or weight-related insults are hurled about, it isn't just a slight against a certain person, but in a way is calling any fat person "less than". I know it makes me uncomfortable. Even if the slights take the form of discussing a person's "health"--really? That's concern-trolling on another person's body and personal choices. It's not just fatphobic (because we can figure out what's intended), but also maybe a bit ableist. I don't care for it, and I wanted to get that off my chest.
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